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Nassim Nicholas Taleb's blog, an inspiring read | Incerto

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Antifragile - Dose Response

Nassim Taleb recently released a draft working paper along with a video to explain his theory behind the book Antifragile. In this posting we'll take a look at both of these items and explore in R-Project some of the Sigmoid functions he uses.

If you are a fan of the Black Swan or the sequel Antifragile, then these additional pearls of wisdom are going to be intriguing to scrutinise further. They give us insight into the model that is at the heart of the Antifragile concept. 

Monday, August 12, 2013

ERM is more than Op Risk

If someone was to ask me what is the biggest hindrance holding back the evolution of Enterprise Risk Management today, I would probably have to say it's the over obsession risk analysts have with trying to squeeze the entire world of risk into the realm of operational risk.

Really, how important is operational risk in a typical company?

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Missed Opportunities in ERM

Should governing opportunities be part of the charter of Enterprise Risk Management? ... Is a discussion in the G31000 forum that is worth deliberating upon further. This [LINK] to the original dialogue will lead you to what has transgressed so far in the debate.

Most businesses run under two modes of operation; strategic planning and tactical delivery of what has already been strategically designed but Enterprise Risk Management usually finds itself applied to the tactical end of the game.

In this blog we'll take a look at four ways in which Enterprise Risk Management can become more involved in risk management for the strategy department.

Friday, August 2, 2013

Can risk models predict the future?

Back at camp G31000 we have another provocative debate raging on with "can we say that risk management helps to predict the future?LINK ] ... Let's ruminate on this statement for a moment.

Prediction and forecasting are a long standing deliberation but one that many people from the risk profession will ponder on at some point in their careers and it all ends up being partly philosophical but definitely paradoxical as we shall see.

Surely the more accurate we are in predicting something, the better off we become? ...