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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

A Failure To Define - Part I

Risk managers and consultants often facilitate "risk management workshops" in an effort to capture a registry or list of threats that their businesses may face. The way these workshops are delivered can vary substantially between practitioners but all that aside, a common problem found by many risk managers is; How to propose the likelihood of occurrence for a specific incident and how to identify its unbiased impact.

Let's take a look at this.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Extending Ishikawa with PLS-PM

In a recent article on this blog site we looked at how Ishikawa diagrams can be used to represent the causal drivers or factors for risk. However, these schematics lack the statistical models necessary for quantifying which factors are contributing most to the top event.

Perhaps one of the biggest problems with all causal analysis techniques are the conclusions that risk analysts draw from their assumptions, yet they often fail to test these postulations. In this blog we are going to look at how causal factors in a Bowtie or Ishikawa diagram can be investigated by "adding-in" the relevant statistical models. Our aim here is to identify which factors contribute most to a top event by considering both their frequency of occurrence as a driver but also how each variable intertwines and correlates in a network of factors to spawn an outcome.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Ishikawa Diagrams Explained

Several risk analysts have asked me how difficult Ishikawa Diagrams are to build and in this short article we are going to quickly construct one of these schematics.

"In ISO 31010 Fishbone Diagrams and Root Cause Mapping are recommended techniques for structured analysis techniques, section B.12.4 of ISO 31010. Do you have an example of such a Fishbone Diagram and are there any software tools that can assist with these techniques?"

Thursday, July 11, 2013

A failure of risk appetite

A recent survey titled the Expectations of Risk Management, It's time for action, leaves the expectations kind of wanting quite frankly. Published by KPMG in co-operation with the Economist Intelligence Unit, the survey encapsulates some excellent results and across various aspects of enterprise risk management. Don't misunderstand me, the survey is fantastic but those being surveyed might need a touch of help.

Specifically, I am rather disheartened to see that setting and measuring risk appetite appears to be a rare thing to consider for most executives in business.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Supply Chain Risk Management Paper

An interesting question was sent to me only the other day on Supply Chain Risk Management. 

"Martin, do you have any specific risk frameworks or do you know of any good case studies that have been published on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM)?".

As it happens, we are working on SCRM in Causal Capital but more on that another time. I also do know of a really grand case study on the framework aspects of Supply Chain Risk Management that has been published by The Pharmaceutical Quality Group, let's take a quick peep.  

Monday, July 8, 2013

UK Govt Response on Banking Standards

The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards final report is supposed to change banking for good and after reading what has been published, it definitely looks like a game changer for rogue bankers, let's take a look.